Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 1.042488 1.222732 1.424806 1.668179 1.953448 2.277372 2.673350
2024-10-13 0.721571 0.947906 1.231641 1.613693 2.115288 2.752319 3.624496
2024-10-20 0.549539 0.782497 1.098674 1.559637 2.215820 3.118514 4.458815
2024-10-27 0.438845 0.666992 0.997199 1.510676 2.291193 3.436902 5.254014
2024-11-03 0.377261 0.606602 0.957479 1.534372 2.462510 3.903603 6.323682
2024-11-10 0.347784 0.588100 0.974487 1.642297 2.772800 4.618759 7.882068
2024-11-17 0.313320 0.554647 0.960576 1.694784 2.996632 5.222151 9.345040
2024-11-24 0.278132 0.513588 0.926474 1.705263 3.146527 5.717015 10.689707
2024-12-01 0.245445 0.471400 0.883279 1.691151 3.247081 6.133935 11.949040
2024-12-08 0.218767 0.436003 0.846707 1.682513 3.353937 6.572835 13.309025
2024-12-15 0.199036 0.410861 0.825449 1.699223 3.510160 7.123521 14.964844
2024-12-22 0.174531 0.372456 0.772746 1.644837 3.514543 7.372575 16.038285
2024-12-29 0.169242 0.373697 0.801335 1.765278 3.905049 8.475317 19.110909
2025-01-05 0.148608 0.339086 0.750601 1.709136 3.909441 8.767932 20.467335
2025-01-12 0.130767 0.307934 0.702780 1.651954 3.902139 9.032267 21.798900
2025-01-19 0.115714 0.280882 0.660173 1.600081 3.898596 9.303006 23.185845
2025-01-26 0.107620 0.269072 0.650801 1.625190 4.081300 10.032582 25.801195
2025-02-02 0.105673 0.271963 0.676511 1.739547 4.499819 11.388169 30.202655
2025-02-09 0.100361 0.265586 0.678741 1.795164 4.778147 12.436780 33.977182
2025-02-16 0.093204 0.253362 0.664609 1.806268 4.942094 13.217133 37.159863
2025-02-23 0.085544 0.238654 0.642000 1.791315 5.033578 13.819562 39.946995
2025-03-02 0.078917 0.225806 0.622546 1.782162 5.139811 14.477155 42.997359
2025-03-09 0.074018 0.217100 0.613124 1.799868 5.324929 15.379899 46.909112